In this work we perform an evaluation of LULCC datasets for Brazil, including the global dataset (HYDE 3.2) used in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB), and national Brazilian dataset (MapBiomas) over the period 2000-2018. One of the main uncertainties is associated with different LULCC datatasets used as input in the different approaches. However, there is a disagreement among different methodologies on the magnitude and trends in emissions and their geographic distribution. Brazil is responsible for about one third of the global land use and land cover change (LULCC) carbon dioxide emissions.We conclude that even if conservation restrictions are considered, agricultural area could nearly double in the region, with expansion possible mostly in areas we classify as moderately suitable for agriculture, which are subject to climate hazards when used for rainfed crops but are otherwise fine for pastures and irrigated croplands. Throughout the region, the transition between the different classes of land use and land cover followed different pathways and was strongly influenced by land suitability and also appears to be influenced by Brazil’s new Forest Code of 2012. We demonstrate that between 19, the region’s total agricultural area increased by 3.17 Mha and the irrigated area increased by 193,480 ha. A spatial multicriteria decision analysis to evaluate land suitability was performed by combining this database with precipitation and slope data. For this purpose, we developed a land use and land cover classification database using a random forest classifier and Landsat images. Here we present analyses of Western Bahian historical changes in land use, including irrigated area, and suitability for future agricultural expansion that respects permanent protection areas and the limits established by the Brazilian Forest Code in the Cerrado biome. Its outstanding increase in production is associated with strong growth in cropland area and irrigation. Western Bahia is a critical region in Brazil’s recent expansion of agricultural output.
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